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Learning Curve Breakdown (work in progress) March 17th 2010 xlsx

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Learning Curve Breakdown (work in progress) March 17th 2010 xlsx

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Name:Learning Curve Breakdown (work in progress) March 17th 2010 xlsx

Infohash: 898D1F87149F54B2CD09E5109DF8195C2E1DDAB3

Total Size: 22.51 KB

Seeds: 3

Leechers: 1

Stream: Watch Full Movie @ Movie4u

Last Updated: 2010-06-27 12:01:59 (Update Now)

Torrent added: 2010-03-17 15:12:13






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Learning Curve Breakdown (work in progress) March 17th 2010.xlsx (Size: 22.51 KB) (Files: 1)

 Learning Curve Breakdown (work in progress) March 17th 2010.xlsx

22.51 KB
 

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Torrent description

The spreadsheet is set up to model the price of photovoltaics over the next 10 years. It assumes a growth rate of 25% per year and an initial learning rate of 18% that steps down year by year to simulate the effect of learning saturation.


I added additional columns that crudely model the change in wafer thickness over the next 10 years. I linearly scaled today\'s wafer thickness ~ 180 um and today\'s kerf loss ~140 um to 100 um each in 2020 which I\'ve seen listed as a common 10 year goal. The polysilicon price trend is an educated guess based on FBR silicon production costs of around $20/kG.


The idea of the wafer and poly columns is to sketch out an additional cost projection that is independent of the learning curve\'s prediction. This allows a crude comparison of the two. So far the comparisons don\'t line up very well because my sketch of polysilicon\'s price future has a sharp drop in the near term due to the glut of poly on the market.


This is a work in progress. Suggestions and critiques are welcome.

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